Trump quickly responded to news that ships from China are no longer delivering goods to the US: “We were losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now, we’re essentially not doing business with China. Therefore, we’re saving hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s very simple.” Why Trump is wrong No, it’s not so simple. Trump wants us to believe that if we decrease imports, everything else that factors into our economic wellbeing will stay the same. After all, he’d argue, the definition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP, which measures a country’s output) shows imports as a subtraction. We measure GDP as the sum of: Direct government expenditures (excludes transfer payments and interest on the debt. It’s federal personnel and purchases of goods like weapons) Domestic Consumption, which equals total Consumption minus the Consumption of goods and services we import Domestic Investment, which…
If federal government spending bloated? The facts will surprise you.
Is our federal government bloated?
Debunking three myths about immigration to the US
Immigration is a top issue in voters’ minds. I want to share some facts about immigration so that we can all be more informed voters. As business leaders, work force trends matter, and immigration helps drive these trends. Deficits also concern us. Did you know that the US Congressional Budget Act predicts the 2021-2026 immigrant population is expected to pay close to a trillion dollars more in taxes than consumed in government benefits? Myth: The immigration system is out of control. Truth: Parts, but not all of it, are broken. There are three ways non-residents enter and legally remain as permanent residents of the US. One is the Visa System, which offers lawful permanent residence. Who gets these? There are three subgroups here: First are immediate relatives of US citizens. There is no limit on the number of spouses, minor unmarried children, and…
Business thrives under democracy and capitalism
Strategists trying to understand and influence the future of an organization will study the “containing system” surrounding it. That is, factors that affect the environment in which the organization operates. Social forces, regulatory changes, competitor actions, and global economic trends are examples. But rarely do strategists consider the notion of whether our nation remains a democracy or operates under capitalism as a component of that containing system. It may be time that we do so. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley‘s comments at his farewell ceremony moved me deeply. Appointed by Trump, he is voluntarily retiring. You might remember that when Trump refused to concede the election, Milley reached out to his counterparts in China. He said the US would not attack China during Trump’s increasingly erratic last days in office. For this act, Trump has accused Milley of…
Healthcare Costs Part One: Who Benefits from our Broken System?
To solve a problem, some say, look to who makes money from its existence. So, who benefits from the high cost of healthcare in the U.S.? At a minimum, looking at the beneficiaries will help us identify those who will impose barriers to changing the status quo. (In the next blog, I’ll look at root causes of the cost problem and worthy solutions.) High Cost U.S. healthcare costs exceed those of other developed countries according to several key metrics: as a percent of our GDP, cost per family, and cost of procedures and hospital stays, among others. Self-insured employers reported to MedCity News that the average per-person cost of healthcare would be $17,201 in 2023, a $1,339 increase (or 7.8%) from 2022. By way of comparison, median annual income was $69,021 in 2021. No wonder a significant lifetime achievement is securing a job…
Grading The Lincoln Project
The Lincoln Project (TLP) is a tribe of GOP political consultants created in advance of the November 2020 election. Its immediate objective was to convince right-leaning-independent and GOP voters in the swing states to vote for Biden and Democratic Senate candidates. Its broader aim, one that continues after this election, is to protect American democracy. Democracy for TLP is one that contains strong democratic institutions (e.g., voting by all, a Justice Department independent of politics) and fulfills the promise of our nation. Steve Bannon (Trump’s 2016 election advisor) said that if TLP could turn 4% of GOP voters to Biden, Trump would lose in 2020. So, 4% became TLP’s key performance indicator. I would suggest a higher benchmark as 4% of GOP voters voted for Hillary in 2016, according to Pew Center research. Did TLP get more than 4% of the GOP…
The economic issues facing our nation require political cooperation, not divisivenesss.
Biden is our President-elect and one thing is certain: Whatever the ultimate balance of power in the US Senate, we do not need four more years of a stalemate. The major economic issues facing our country require a US Congress that can listen, learn, debate, and collaborate with the President to find solutions that advance the well-being of our nation. What are our major economic issues? The pandemic. The exponential growth rate in COVID virus cases (and with it, ICU bed usage and deaths) is slowing down our economic growth while at the same time increasing the deficit, food shortages, evictions, anxiety, and business bankruptcies, small and large. Our excess death date and virus incidence proved we are not managing the pandemic effectively. We need the President and Congress to act on Federal powers to drive manufacturing to support Covid-fighting efforts so that…
From “Mass” to “Craft”: The new differentiator
“Mass” was the economic drive of the last few decades. Mass markets replaced national markets, which had replaced local markets. Walk into any city’s retail centers and malls a decade ago, and they looked identical. Manufacturing automation and global supply chains made goods cheaper. Clothing, curtains, bedding, hairdryers, blenders … much of what we buy has become so cheap that we throw items away rather than repairing them. My seamstress, who has been in business some 40 years, cannot believe how poorly made clothes are today. And her comments refer to the pieces she is seeing, the ones worth repairing. True, cars are more expensive. But based on their quality, longevity, and performance, they are a hell of a lot cheaper than their predecessors considering lifetime costs. And have you noticed that they increasingly look alike? IKEA brought us furniture so cheap that…
Why we should all be depressed, not just Michelle Obama
Michelle Obama is experiencing mild depression. If she can feel depressed, I feel better about my own malaise, especially about the state of the US economy. Without additional fiscal stimulus, we will experience an economic depression, a situation where the economy lacks its own ability to recover. There are other things to feel terrible about – unnecessary deaths, inequality, school-age children falling behind, and another generation likely to incur long-term effects from sustained, high unemployment. All these painful experiences are worsened as the economy tanks further. It’s helpful to remember Macroeconomics 101. The level of our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (essentially our national income) depends on the addition of four terms. Consumption of disposable goods like food, entertainment, and clothing. It is the dominant majority of our GDP, coming in at about 69% in Q2 of 2020 GDP. Government spending on things like…
What if you made market and customer understanding as important as your organization’s financial information?
Financial information infuses company activities. From budgeting to closing the monthly books, from measuring progress to managing cash flows, numbers are to business what the ABC’s are to our reading. It’s no wonder then that companies large and small have invested heavily in their financial system, teams, and processes to generate financial information. Let’s call this entirety the Financial Information System. Numerical data is collected, processed, and stored in data warehouses, where it is then used to develop insight and inform decisions. While the Chief Financial Officer is in charge of this system, all employees play a role, whether they fill out expense forms, develop budgets, or make investment decisions. And all decision-makers are encouraged to use the processes’ information (e.g., making a presentation as a product manager about your category). A stellar CFO is like a great coach in winning the game…