Immigration is a top issue in voters’ minds. I want to share some facts about immigration so that we can all be more informed voters. As business leaders, work force trends matter, and immigration helps drive these trends. Deficits also concern us.  Did you know that the US Congressional Budget Act predicts the 2021-2026 immigrant population is expected to pay close to a trillion dollars more in taxes than consumed in government benefits?

Myth: The immigration system is out of control.

Truth: Parts, but not all of it, are broken.

There are three ways non-residents enter and legally remain as permanent residents of the US.

One is the Visa System, which offers lawful permanent residence. Who gets these? There are three subgroups here:

First are immediate relatives of US citizens. There is no limit on the number of spouses, minor unmarried children, and parents of US citizens who can enter the country. The number of other types of family members who can enter is capped at 480,000 across all applicants.

Individuals who can fill scarce occupations and have employer sponsorship follow, alongside investors who will create jobs. Here, the cap is 140,000.

The last group contains those who win a diversity lottery. These lucky individuals are from countries without many immigrants to the US who win one of 55,000 spaces. This system works effectively.  The only issue is that the number admitted under the lottery has stayed the same since 1990, despite our economy more than doubling in real terms since 1990. In 2022, there were 7.3 million qualified applicants for the lottery.

A second way to enter is the Refugee and Asylum System. Refugees apply for entry from their home country. In contrast, asylum seekers apply from a controlled entry point on the border or after they enter illegally. The system was set up internationally to deal with situations such as Ukraine, where there is a valid fear of persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion. However, over time, enter due to economic hardship in a dysfunctional home nation. Border agents turn away half of the asylum seekers. The admiyyed number under this system remains below the ceilings set by the US president, suggesting many of the seekers lack valid reasons for seeking permanent residency. (See Chart to the right.)

A shortage of immigration judges means many who apply can live in the US for years before judges adjudicate their cases. In September 2023, more than 1 million asylum applications made at the border were pending in a backlog. Claims made after illegal entry to the US is called defensive asylum application. Here the FY 2023 backlog was 937,000. On average, an immigration judge has a backlog of 4,500 cases.

The final way into the US is illegal entry or staying beyond one’s visa period. The total of unauthorized individuals is estimated to be 10-11 million people. On October 31, 2023, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee. He said that more than 600,000 people illegally made their way into the United States without being apprehended by border agents during the 2023 fiscal year. (Wikipedia.). These individuals can be deported.

The most deportations happened under the Obama administration, about 410,000 in FY 2012 and 438,000 in FY 2013. Deportations fell in the Trump years to 226,000 and 256,000 in FYs 2017 and 2018, respectively. In FY 2023, there were 339,751 removals. The Dreamers Act created an exception for children who entered the US illegally with their parents but have since proven to be legally abiding residents pursuing and completing their education. Hiring border agents to deal with illegal crossings has proven very hard.

Myth: Our economy can’t absorb the current level of legal and illegal immigration. More people hurt the American worker.

Truth: Our large economy can absorb this level, and we need even more immigrants.

Current birth rates in the US are 1.7 children per woman, lower than the 2.1 rate required for population stability. Absent immigration, our population will decline, and with this, economic growth. Immigration supplies healthcare workers for our aging population and helps to support our social security system as the population ages.

Immigrants are complements to higher skilled workers. The more immigrants there are, the more significant the demand for goods and services and the higher the pay for higher-skilled workers. Because immigrants are more likely to lack higher education, immigration can hurt low-skilled labor wages in the near term in communities where immigrants initially land. However, economists have shown that immigrant locations become more diffuse over time, and native-born lower-skilled workers move up career ladders (e.g., from construction worker to project manager).

Myth: Americans are turning against immigrants.

Truth: Americans support immigration, but not illegal entry and stays. And, they want a policy solution.

According to a CBS poll, 70% approve of Biden reducing the number of people who can cross the border, and 60% approve of deportation of those living in the US illegally. We should increase the lottery, using a skills-based approach like that in Canada. Higher legal immigration would dramatically cut back on illegal crossings.

Biden initiated reform efforts when he first took office and again in early 2024, both efforts rejected by the GOP. Border crossings soared when law shutting down the border during COVID-19 ended and Biden ended some detention policies. Biden finally took executive action recently, but many say it is too late. Specifically, he ended asylum applications when the number of crossings exceeds a daily amount, and he is expediting deportations. He is also giving legal status to spouses of US citizens who have lived in the US for ten years or more without commiting a crime.  Their children can also stay.

Improvements in other nations’ economies cannot be the solution. Counter to what you may expect, data shows that rising incomes in Latin American countries creates more illegal attempts. Why? Because smugglers and travel are now more affordable. Better temporary worker programs are needed.  We should also allow young lawyers to serve as immigration judges in return for law school debt reversal. We can use technology to make border agents more efficient. Allowing the National Guard to manage surges of people at the borders is also needed.

Real reform will require US Congressional action, but there is little reason for hope here. Both sides of the political debate hold any solution hostage. Before they compromise, the Right wants the border closed and fenced in. The Left wants a solution to the illegal population already in the country, especially the DACA children who are now adults. Perhaps after the 2024 election, we’ll see progress. Local, costal and border communities are affected most in the near term. Since the Federal government benefits the most from immigrant wage payments, any reform should help local communities with school, healthcare, and housing costs of new entrants.

Remember that we are a large nation with a growing economy. Our economy outperformed Europe post COVID-19, mainly because of our higher immigration flow. Hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants and ten million illegal immigrants sound like considerable numbers. But in a nation of 330 million, these numbers are not that significant.