To solve a problem, some say, look to who makes money from its existence. So, who benefits from the high cost of healthcare in the U.S.? At a minimum, looking at the beneficiaries will help us identify those who will impose barriers to changing the status quo. (In the next blog, I’ll look at root causes of the cost problem and worthy solutions.) High Cost U.S. healthcare costs exceed those of other developed countries according to several key metrics: as a percent of our GDP, cost per family, and cost of procedures and hospital stays, among others. Self-insured employers reported to MedCity News that the average per-person cost of healthcare would be $17,201 in 2023, a $1,339 increase (or 7.8%) from 2022. By way of comparison, median annual income was $69,021 in 2021. No wonder a significant lifetime achievement is securing a job…
Why are US voters so pessimistic about the American economy?
Economists (of which I am one) are cheering about recent economic measures for our nation. Inflation rates are falling without the high levels of unemployment expected to produce disinflation. Real wages have risen. Hard-to-employ groups are finding jobs as employers drop prior credential requirements. Indeed, the soft landing the US Federal Reserve Bank is shooting for may be achievable (underscore “may,” as so much uncertainty remains). So why does most of the nation (7 in 10 according to a March 2023 CNN poll) believe the economy is still bad? One hypothesis is that people are upset because, although the inflation rate is falling, prices remain significantly higher. They feel they need to spend a larger percentage of their income on meeting their needs. Yes, prices are up. And, higher prices make them worse off. But incomes are also rising. If incomes increase more…
Bidenomics vs Trickle Down – It Depends
US President Joe Biden and his team are traveling the country spouting the success of his economic policies. The package is called “Bidenomics.” It’s best understood as a contrast (which I’ll get to shortly) to traditional GOP economic policy recommendations. The latter argues for lower taxes, less government regulation, and minimizing social welfare spending. The fear underlying GOP dismissal of Bidenomics is that we will become a “socialist” nation. Think of Scandinavian nations with high taxes and high social spending. (The fact that these nations do not engage in socialism – a system where the government owns the means of production, distribution, and exchange – is beside the point. But discussing that would be a digression here.) The GOP policy prescription is based on core assumptions such as: The private sector can spend money more efficiently than the government. Low taxes on corporations…
Effective policy demands flexibility that politicians lack
Our two political parties each champion a set of recommended economic policies. For the GOP, tax cuts are always helpful. For the Democrats, not so much—but government spending can solve a lot of problems. As an economist, the rigidity of political views – not just among the politicians but their distinct tribes of voters – dismays me. Why? Because different contexts demand different solutions. In early 2009, Captain Sullenberger went against traditional thinking when he safely landed an Airbus A320 on the Hudson Bay after it hit a flock of birds, cutting off all engine power. He didn’t follow standard procedures because he and co-pilot, Jeffrey Skiles, recognized the uniqueness of the situation. An economy is a far more complex system than a plane and its interaction with air. With any complex system, physics proves that starting conditions matter for what you do…
Build ??? Back Better
With a COVID vaccine in sight, economic recovery in 2021 is a reasonable expectation. But is there a way to build a better economy, not merely a larger one? It is a promise of the incoming Biden administration. Some elements economists would include in creating a better economy are listed below. Raise the standard of living for non-college-educated workers. It’s fallen by a lot. The result is worsening health statistics and growing family food insecurity, issues that existed even before the pandemic. Raising the minimum wage, rural development strategies and investments, and more affordable healthcare and housing are critical strategies for accomplishing this objective. Democrats propose changes to the tax system as the best way to achieve this aim. CEOs like Mark Benioff of Salesforce, on the other hand, argue that business and job creation is a better strategy, and there is truth…
Grading The Lincoln Project
The Lincoln Project (TLP) is a tribe of GOP political consultants created in advance of the November 2020 election. Its immediate objective was to convince right-leaning-independent and GOP voters in the swing states to vote for Biden and Democratic Senate candidates. Its broader aim, one that continues after this election, is to protect American democracy. Democracy for TLP is one that contains strong democratic institutions (e.g., voting by all, a Justice Department independent of politics) and fulfills the promise of our nation. Steve Bannon (Trump’s 2016 election advisor) said that if TLP could turn 4% of GOP voters to Biden, Trump would lose in 2020. So, 4% became TLP’s key performance indicator. I would suggest a higher benchmark as 4% of GOP voters voted for Hillary in 2016, according to Pew Center research. Did TLP get more than 4% of the GOP…
The economic issues facing our nation require political cooperation, not divisivenesss.
Biden is our President-elect and one thing is certain: Whatever the ultimate balance of power in the US Senate, we do not need four more years of a stalemate. The major economic issues facing our country require a US Congress that can listen, learn, debate, and collaborate with the President to find solutions that advance the well-being of our nation. What are our major economic issues? The pandemic. The exponential growth rate in COVID virus cases (and with it, ICU bed usage and deaths) is slowing down our economic growth while at the same time increasing the deficit, food shortages, evictions, anxiety, and business bankruptcies, small and large. Our excess death date and virus incidence proved we are not managing the pandemic effectively. We need the President and Congress to act on Federal powers to drive manufacturing to support Covid-fighting efforts so that…
We need more not less diversity training
President Trump has ordered Federal Agencies and their contractors (i.e., a significant percentage of American businesses) to halt diversity training that builds from Critical Race Theory. Words you are likely familiar with – such as unconscious bias – emerge from this theory, which argues that racism is ingrained in American society’s fabric and system, not merely in individual people. This system better explains societal outcomes than does individual behavior. Business is rightfully pushing back against Trump’s order, as efforts to encourage diversity and welcoming cultures have led to more successful talent attraction and retention and more innovative cultures. Trump’s action aims to appeal to his political base, and while it may be right politically, it is wrong on other levels. To understand, I encourage you to read Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents. In the book, Pulitzer Prize-winning author Isabel Wilkerson comments: “Caste…
Why we should all be depressed, not just Michelle Obama
Michelle Obama is experiencing mild depression. If she can feel depressed, I feel better about my own malaise, especially about the state of the US economy. Without additional fiscal stimulus, we will experience an economic depression, a situation where the economy lacks its own ability to recover. There are other things to feel terrible about – unnecessary deaths, inequality, school-age children falling behind, and another generation likely to incur long-term effects from sustained, high unemployment. All these painful experiences are worsened as the economy tanks further. It’s helpful to remember Macroeconomics 101. The level of our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (essentially our national income) depends on the addition of four terms. Consumption of disposable goods like food, entertainment, and clothing. It is the dominant majority of our GDP, coming in at about 69% in Q2 of 2020 GDP. Government spending on things like…
Should businesses care about economic inequality beyond justice considerations?
Today is scary. Our lizard brains want to hold tighter onto what we have. But embracing a spirit of abundance and thinking about “we, united” versus “me, safe in my status” is exactly what is needed by business owners and leaders. Why should leaders worry about inequality beyond justice considerations? GDP growth. We live in a consumer-driven economy. Without a growing middle class, consumption will continue to grow slowly, as the wealthy have much lower propensities to spend, even in today’s luxury branded world. Today, the most prosperous people secure an astoundingly large and rising share of national income, while the worst-off show little to no growth in income (despite rising housing, medical, and education costs). The middle class is disappearing. Global data shows nations with more equitable income distributions have more rapid real economic growth. Young people’s inability to afford homes and…