Economics lacks meteorology’s scientific basis, although many economists make their money forecasting where the business cycle is headed (albeit with less success than weather channels). This economist has little faith in economic predictions today as they are based primarily on past trends and relationships, captured through rigorous econometric models. The depth of this recession, its causes and its global impact in a world far more interconnected than any of us understood suggest that the present will be a distinct break from the past. Time to throw out the models, as the author of Black Swan advises. ____________________ If uncertainty reigns, what are we to do as leaders and recommend as their advisors? This is the subject of a blog-conversation I will be sharing with two other blog authors whose insights I admire. Hopefully others will discover and join our conversation. Bill Welter is…