Economists argue that trade is good, essential in fact to growing an economy. If you excel at growing tomatoes, and I carrots, we will each have a healthier and more plentiful diet by bartering carrots for tomatoes. Once you add in far more people (across the globe no less), more goods (beef, cars, iPhones), services, and a monetary system that converts the value of any item to a price, gains in our simple local barter example grow exponentially. The world benefits when people trade, exporting what they are uniquely good at and importing what others are more efficient at making. We end up with more goods and services at a lower price when trade crosses city, state, regions and national boundaries. But what is true in theory is not always true in fact. The theory of trade assumed scarcity of labor in developed…
Markets vs. governments: An economist’s view
It’s not possible to resolve political debates such as “Should we raise taxes to revitalize our aging transportation infrastructure?” without first achieving consensus on the role of government. The role debate, at least in my mind, is far less divisive than “how.” So, as we enter elections to determine the next US President and Congress, I thought it would be a good time to share an economist’s perspective on the role of government. There would be no role for government in our economy if – in our roles as citizens, business owners, shareholders, employees, and consumers – we acted in the best interests of society as a whole. Rather, we act out of real or perceived self-interest. There is nevertheless a huge advantage to individuals acting in their self-interest. It creates an invisible hand enabling a market-based economy. Adam Smith argued (correctly) that…
Fearing inflation, deflation becomes the unnecessary evil
Was the US Central Bank right to delay a planned rise in interest rates? The increase was anticipated to beat down inflation before it got out of hand. Instead, Chairwoman Yellen and her team “wimped out.” Let’s provide some context first. Following the banking crisis that resulted in the 2008 recession, The US Federal Reserve engaged in unprecedented monetary stimulus through buying bonds, driving real and nominal interest rates to historic lows. Most GOP commentators forecasted high inflation because all else equal that much monetary stimulus should have driven inflation into the double digits. Many business leaders accepted these projections as fact. The fear still hangs over us. Those inflation projections were flat out wrong. Why? Because the “all else equal” condition did not hold true. Banks used extra reserves to build up capital rather than lend, preventing the Fed’s bond-buying action from…